This post originally appeared on JLL’s Boston blog. We’ve published it again on our own blog in the spirit of Sunday’s championship. Please share your comments, or predictions for the big game in the comments below!
After picking last year’s winner, JLL once again turns to commercial real estate stats to pick the winner of the big game.
Our Americas Executive Chairman Roger Staubach, is making a bold prognostication for Sunday’s championship in New York. He’s picking the Denver Broncos to defeat the Seattle Seahawks.
While the talking heads and Vegas odds makers look to point differentials, QB ratings and other on-the-field stats, Staubach and JLL Research are once again sticking with what they know best — commercial real estate — to make their pick. Watch as Staubach reveals his winner of this Sunday’s Big Game.
According to the firm’s analysis of the last 13 season finale games, teams based in cities with the higher office vacancy rate (i.e. more space available for lease) have won the Lombardi Trophy 62 percent of the time. This includes last February when Baltimore edged San Francisco.
This year, according to the latest JLL Research, the overall vacancy rate in the Mile High city stands at 13.9 percent compared with 12.5 percent in the Emerald City, making the Broncos our favorite to win the crown.
JLL’s Roger Staubach, who was MVP of the 1972 game, said that his pick also takes into account Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning, whose play has been on the upswing all season, much like the LoDo micro-market in downtown Denver.
“Peyton Manning is one of the greatest NFL quarterbacks of all time,” Staubach said. “I believe in our JLL formula, but more importantly, I also believe in Peyton and I know he’s going to get the job done for the Broncos and the great people of Denver on Sunday night.”
Staubach also has high praise for the Seahawks’ defense, which has held its opponents to an average of just 11.6 points per game over their last five contests, and is almost as hot as Seattle’s South Lake Union submarket with its vacancy rate of just 4.0 percent.
“I love Seattle’s ‘D,’ I love [quarterback] Russell Wilson, and I love ‘The 12th Man,’” he said. “But this is Denver’s year.”